MINNEAPOLIS — September 4, 2026 (Minnesota Nice News)
Minnesota Twins playoff odds sit at a slim 7.2% with just 22 games remaining in the 2026 season. The Twins have not won more than four games in a row at any point this year, but to reach the postseason from here, they need to win roughly 16 of their final 22 games.
Sitting at 67-73, Minnesota is 3½ games behind Cleveland for the last wild card in the American League. Toronto and Texas are both a game back of the Guardians, and Baltimore is two. The Twins would have to pass four clubs in three weeks, and they play none of the other three head-to-head down the stretch.
BaseChaser, which runs Monte Carlo simulations on the remaining schedule, calculates that the Minnesota Twins playoff odds stand at 7.2% overall, with a 1.5% chance of winning the division. It projects a final record around 78-84 and a 10th-place finish in the American League based on an 11-11 mark the rest of the way. Eleven and eleven does not get it done.
The elimination number is 20. Any combination of 20 more Twins losses and wins by the club they are chasing ends it.
How Run Differential Impacts Minnesota Twins Playoff Odds
The underlying numbers reflect the record accurately. Minnesota has been outscored by 38 runs this season, 696 allowed against 658 scored. Their expected record on run differential is 66-74, one game worse than where they sit today. This is not a team that has been unlucky; it is playing exactly to its statistical output.
The road is the harder half. The Twins are 38-34 at Target Field and 29-39 away from it, and six of their next nine are away. Three at Chicago starting Friday against the division leader, then three at Detroit over Labor Day. Cleveland comes to Minneapolis on Sept. 11.
Looking back at August, they went 7-13. They swept a first-place Atlanta club at home in the middle of the month and then got swept in San Diego the next weekend. Manager Derek Shelton said afterward that the Padres beat them in every facet of the game. They are 4-6 over their last 10 games.
What is still working:
- Brooks Lee has seven home runs in his last 30 games.
- Luke Keaschall has been productive at the top of the order.
- Dean Kremer, acquired at the deadline, and Bailey Ober have both turned in solid starts.
- Byron Buxton continues working to find his form since returning from a hip injury.
- Joe Ryan remains sidelined with a glute strain.
To revive the Minnesota Twins playoff odds, the team needs something close to a 16-6 finish while Cleveland, Toronto, Texas, and Baltimore all stumble. As Twins Daily wrote last month, the odds have cratered, but the door stays open until somebody closes it.
First pitch Friday is 6:40 p.m. from Chicago.
Writing By: Jodi Moyer | Editing by Gregory Moyer
EDITOR’S NOTE: Standings through Sept. 4. Postseason odds and projections from BaseChaser. Magic and elimination numbers from Sports Magic Numbers. Quotes and August detail from MLB.com reporting by Cole Bradley, Aug. 23.
SOURCES
BaseChaser: Minnesota Twins Playoff Odds & Postseason Simulations An analytical sports platform that utilizes Monte Carlo simulation models to run thousands of remaining schedule projections, calculating daily postseason probabilities, projected final win-loss records, and division odds.
MLB.com: Major League Baseball Standings & Team Ranks The official digital platform of Major League Baseball, serving as the primary source for verified wild card and division standings, official game schedules, team rosters, and real-time game logs.
Twins Daily: Minnesota Twins Coverage & Analysis An independent digital news outlet and community platform focused exclusively on Minnesota Twins coverage, providing beat reporting, roster evaluations, and fan-oriented editorial analysis.
Baseball-Reference: Minnesota Twins Season Stats & Run Differential A comprehensive statistical database for professional baseball, tracking advanced historical metrics, team run differentials, expected Pythagorean win-loss records, and individual player performance logs.
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